From Bucks County to the Lehigh Valley, northeastern Pennsylvania and the Harrisburg suburbs, four congressional races are testing whether Republican incumbents nationwide can survive strong headwinds as they fight to keep their seats.
The Republicans in those seats are facing robust challenges from well-financed Democrats who are benefitting from one of the biggest blue waves in years.
The four Pennsylvania seats Democrats believe they can flip are more than any other state. As Election Day inches closer, analysts have shifted their predictions further toward Democratic victories.
In Bucks County, Fitzpatrick’s independent reputation faces a test
Incumbent Congressman Brian Fitzpatrick is facing off against Bucks County Commissioner Bob Harvie in a district where Democrats have a 1-point registration advantage.
Fitzpatrick has served in the U.S. House for five terms and won reelection in 2024 by nearly 13 percentage points. Over his congressional career, he has crafted an image as an independent, moderate Republican. He also boasts significant support from labor with dozens of union endorsements.
Democratic messaging has targeted that reputation, with the vast majority of ads mentioning Trump and arguing the congressman is “lockstep” with the president.
That strategy may be working.
“You read this stuff and you say, ‘Oh, he’s moderate and he does this,’ but then you look at how he votes and whenever the Republicans need him, he votes with them,” said Bucks County resident Jean Barrell, a Democrat.
Over the course of a few weeks, Cook Political Report shifted their rating in the 1st Congressional District race from “likely Republican” to “toss-up,” and Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved the race from “leans Republican” to “toss up,” suggesting a narrowing of the gap. And this week, the first public poll in the race shows a dead heat between the two candidates.
Republicans have also gone on the offensive, releasing a video accusing Harvie of being the subject of a 2022 FBI corruption investigation into Falls Township where he was previously a town supervisor. Harvie has responded that he was merely a witness and sued the group that released the ad for defamation.
While the accusers have not offered evidence, the accusation has made a mark.
“I think it had to do with some spending issues,” said Tom Esposito, a Bucks County Republican. “So the people need to know that, right? And if it wasn’t a big deal, Harvie shouldn’t try to hide it.”
Fitzpatrick has maintained a substantial fundraising advantage. Federal Election Commission data show about $8 million in receipts during the 2025–2026 cycle through Oct. 14, compared with Harvie’s more than $3 million. Fitzpatrick had over $700,000 in cash remaining, compared with Harvie’s more than $400,000. Outside groups have also spent millions more in the race.
The only public poll in the race puts Harvie at 48% and Fitzpatrick at 46%. The 2-point gap was within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 5.7 percentage points.
In Lehigh Valley, Mackenzie and Brooks compete for working-class voters
The Lehigh Valley-based 7th District — encompassing Lehigh, Northampton and Carbon counties — is widely seen as one of the purest swing seats in the country. Republican Ryan Mackenzie flipped the seat in 2024 with just over 50% of the vote, ousting Democratic Rep. Susan Wild, who served two terms.
His 2026 Democratic challenger, Bob Brooks, is a veteran Bethlehem firefighter and president of the Pennsylvania Professional Fire Fighters Association who has never held elected office before. Brooks has made his union background central to a campaign emphasizing wages, health care and the cost of living.
Mackenzie was one of more than 60 Republicans in the state legislature who signed a letter asking the state’s congressional delegation to reject Pennsylvania’s electoral votes for Joe Biden.
As a member of Congress, Mackenzie strongly supported the president in many of his policy priorities, including the “Big Beautiful Bill,” the war in Iran and tariffs, though he criticized how they were implemented. He was also one of 17 Republicans to vote for an extension of health care subsidies, a bill which died without a vote in the Republican-led Senate.
Mackenzie has attacked Brooks for a lawsuit filed against him by his mother over an unpaid loan. That case has since been settled and Brooks sent cease-and-desist letters demanding Mackenzie take down the ads.
Adam Perreault, a firefighter, told WHYY News that he registered as a Democrat so he could vote for Brooks in the primary.
“I’ve always been a registered Republican and I do share a lot of the Republican values, although the party has drifted from what I expected that it would stand for,” he said. “If you’re out there struggling day by day, Bob’s … the one that’s actually going to be standing up for us.”
Al Gruenke, a Republican, said that he had a good experience when the office helped him obtain services and that Brooks “just doesn’t look like a congressman.”
“He doesn’t have the background of a congressman,” the retired engineer said. “He just doesn’t have an aura of a leader.”
Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball now rate the race “lean Democrat.”Mackenzie won by just over 4,000 votes in 2024 with Trump at the top of the ticket and, according to a recent poll, Brooks is 5 points ahead in the race.
The candidates were closely matched in fundraising. FEC data compiled by Ballotpedia show Brooks reported about $5.35 million in receipts during the 2025–2026 cycle through Oct. 14, compared with Mackenzie’s $5.3 million.
In Lackawanna County, stock trading shadows Bresnahan’s reelection bid
U.S. Rep. Rob Bresnahan defeated Democrat Matt Cartwright in 2024 to flip the 8th Congressional District but is now defending his Lackawanna County seat against a challenge from Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti.
Like Mackenzie, Bresnahan voted for the “Big Beautiful Bill” and against a resolution directing the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iran, as well as backed the president’s tariffs while acknowledging the uncertainty they created for businesses and consumers. He was also one of 17 House Republicans to vote in January to restore enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies for three years, legislation that has not received a vote in the Republican-led Senate.
The race is turning on many of the same issues as many other races, such as the cost of living and data centers, but Bresnahan has also been facing criticism over stock trades he made since his election. Critics allege the trades were made with the benefit of insider trading and related to bills he voted on, which is all legal. Bresnahan has denied wrongdoing and sponsored legislation to limit trading by members of Congress.
The issue doesn’t appear to bother Joe Bizub of Wilkes-Barre.
“The guy’s a citizen. They should be allowed the same opportunities that everybody else has,” he said. And “he went after the stocks. He sponsored that bill.”
A recent poll shows Cognetti up by 51% to Bresnahan’s 46%, a gap just within the margin of error. Cook’s Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball recently labeled the race “lean Democrat.”
Cognetti also leads in fundraising. According to FEC filings reported by WVIA, her campaign had raised about $7.50 million during the 2025–2026 cycle through Oct. 14, compared with Bresnahan’s $6.5 million. But Bresnahan had more money remaining: about $733,000 in cash, compared with Cognetti’s $244,000.
In Cumberland County, Perry’s Trump alliance faces another test
Republican U.S. Rep. Scott Perry is facing a rematch against Democrat Janelle Stelson in Pennsylvania’s 10th Congressional District, which includes Dauphin County and parts of Cumberland and York counties. Perry defeated the former WGAL television anchor by roughly 5,000 votes in 2024. This year, the Cook Political Report rates the race “lean Democrat.”
First elected to Congress in 2012, Perry is a retired Army National Guard brigadier general and former chairman of the conservative House Freedom Caucus. Stelson, who was a registered Republican until 2023, is seeking to build a coalition of Democrats, independents and Republicans dissatisfied with the incumbent.
Perry has supported major Trump priorities, including the Republican tax-and-spending law, tariffs and continuing military operations in Iran. He opposed extending enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies, while Stelson supports making those tax credits permanent. She has also called for reversing Trump’s tariffs and restoring federal abortion protections.
Unlike some vulnerable Republicans who have sought distance from the president, Perry has maintained his close alignment with Trump. He attended the Republican midterm convention in Dallas and has blamed the president’s poor approval ratings on negative media coverage.
That relationship has helped mobilize opposition from within his own party. Republicans Against Perry, whose founders include former Pennsylvania Attorney General Walter Cohen, has run ads against the incumbent.
“We do not need a member of Congress that is that closely tied under the strings of Donald Trump,” Cohen told WHYY News.
Affordability and health care have dominated much of the advertising. Stelson has attacked Perry’s Medicaid vote and support for a national sales tax, while herself promoting tax relief for working households. Perry has emphasized Republican tax cuts and portrayed Stelson as a liberal who would follow Democratic leadership.
The race is likely to hinge on whether Stelson can turn economic frustration and Republican defections into enough votes to overcome the district’s GOP registration advantage — and whether Perry can retain Trump supporters while persuading other voters to give him an eighth term.
A recent poll found Perry and Stelson tied at 48%. That contrasts with earlier polling showing Stelson ahead by 3%, though no polling shows a clear lead. Both the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball say the race “leans Democrat.”
Stelson held the fundraising advantage. FEC data compiled by Ballotpedia show her campaign reported about $9 million in receipts during the 2025–2026 cycle through Oct. 14, compared with Perry’s nearly $7 million. She had about $2 million in cash remaining, compared with his $1 million. These are candidate committee totals and exclude independent spending by outside groups.
Editor’s note: This story has been edited to reflect the correct county where Bob Harvie serves as county commissioner. An earlier version of this article misstated the name of Joel Bizub. He is Joe Bizub. It was also corrected to reflect Democrats need three seats to win a majority in the U.S. House rather than four. It was also updated to reflect changes in analysis by Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball.
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