Pennsylvania historically prefers to reelect its governors with large margins, and Gov. Josh Shapiro seems set to fit the mold, according to new polling. In a head-to-head with state Treasurer Stacy Garrity, Pennsylvanians prefer Shapiro 55% to 39%, with only two months to go until the midterm election day.
"She's running against clearly a very formidable foe in the sitting governor, someone who in issue after issue is seen as by a majority of Pennsylvanians of doing a good job," said Don Levy, the director of polling at Siena University, which ran the poll in partnership with The New York Times and Philadelphia Inquirer.
Shapiro, a first-term Democrat, also has the funding advantage. As WITF previously reported, Shapiro raised more than $18 million in the first six months of 2026 compared to Garrity's just under $2 million.
Garrity's fundraising struggles complicate her first obstacle in running a competitive race, and that is to become well-known. More than a third of respondents had not heard of or didn't know enough about Garrity to know how they felt about her. That's despite her campaign's creative use of a web video series attacking Shapiro's record.
"Somehow, she's got to simultaneously get known to Pennsylvanians and find a way to indicate that she is more in touch with the values of Pennsylvania, understands their needs, and is going to perform better than someone that they think is already performing well," Levy said of Garrity's campaign challenges ahead of Nov. 3.
Shapiro has more than the governor's race riding on the election. If Democrats have a strong year, bolstered both by Shapiro's favorability and discontent with President Donald Trump, they could flip U.S. congressional seats and control of the state senate.
Such a sweep would set Shapiro up well for a run for president in 2028. Though the governor avoids answering questions about whether he will run, he has not denied his interest in the presidency and political prognosticators nationwide expect him to enter the race.
The poll asked Democratic voters if they would support Shapiro during the primary if he ran for president, and 86% said yes, though other candidates were not listed.
Pennsylvanian's top issues for the election are the economy and inflation. Their concerns reflect a push away from Trump, with 61% of voters disapproving of his handling of the economy, and a pull toward Shapiro, who voters think will do a better job than Garrity with the state's economy.
Though they didn't name it as their top priority, 62% of poll respondents said they did not support the construction of data centers to support Artificial Intelligence. Both Shapiro and Garrity have changed their stances as public displeasure became more apparent, and last week Shapiro signed an executive order adding restrictions to data center development.
Read more from our partners, WITF.