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As the 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial race approaches, the Republican field is shaping up with several prominent figures expressing interest, if not outright campaigning, for the right to challenge Gov. Josh Shapiro.
Three primary candidates are making stops and taking to the airwaves as they criticize the incumbent Democrat. Each is also making a clear bid for an endorsement from President Donald Trump, an anointment that may help their bid for the party nomination, or not.
Among the potential GOP contenders are state Treasurer Stacy Garrity, U.S. Rep. Dan Meuser and state Sen. Doug Mastriano.
The second time around
Mastriano currently represents Adams and Franklin counties. He served in the U.S. Army for 30 years, a career which included deployments in Iraq and Afghanistan, leadership roles in NATO operations and a stint as director of the Joint Intelligence Center in Afghanistan. Mastriano retired in 2017 after serving as a professor at the U.S. Army War College.
Mastriano first entered Pennsylvania politics with an unsuccessful bid for Congress in 2018. In 2019, he won a special election to the state Senate where he quickly gained attention for his vocal opposition to COVID-19 public health mandates and support for unfounded claims that the 2020 presidential election was stolen.
Mastriano then won the Republican nomination for governor in 2022 and campaigned on far-right cultural issues, election skepticism and Christian nationalist themes, but lost to Shapiro by a 15-point margin in that race. He still appears to be contemplating another run, telling Harrisburg’s ABC affiliate he’s “praying” on the decision and has discussed the possibility of a Mastriano-Garrity ticket.
Given his 2022 performance, however, many Republicans are looking for another candidate. Veteran political consultant Christopher Nicholas said Mastriano may be floating the idea as a way of trying to get favors in return for dropping out of the race.
“I know you reporters love to hang on to the Mastriano thing, but nobody in my camp, my party, takes it seriously that he’s going to run again or be the nominee,” Nicholas said. “He was a disaster as the nominee and we’re not going to go down that road again.”
Sam Chen, another political consultant, believes that Mastriano might be serious about running but he largely agrees with Nicholas that he wouldn’t be the logical choice for the nomination.
“I think there’s a lot of people that just look at it and go, ‘You ran against Shapiro the last time, you lost, so I don’t know why I would give you another chance,’” he said. “So I don’t know that he even gets through a primary, but I certainly don’t think he gets through the general.”
The popular one
Both Nicholas and Chen agree that, right now, Garrity appears to be the belle of the ball among Republicans to put forward.
“Garrity is the most popular Republican in the state right now,” Chen said.
Like Mastriano, Garrity also deployed in Iraq, serving as a colonel in the U.S. Army Reserve. While there, she ran a U.S.-run detention center where she earned the nickname “Angel of the Desert” for her compassionate oversight. Garrity made her first political bid in 2019, running unsuccessfully in the GOP primary for Pennsylvania’s 12th congressional district. Afterward, she ran for state treasurer in 2020, unseating Democrat Joe Torsella in a narrow upset.
As treasurer, Garrity has received praise for a number of initiatives including upgrades to the Treasury’s unclaimed property system, overseeing record distributions to residents. She’s also been credited for raising the rating on the state’s 529 college saving program and divesting from China and Russia.
Like Mastriano, Garrity has demonstrated an allegiance with the Make America Great Again crowd, speaking at a rally questioning the 2020 presidential results the day before Jan. 6, 2021 and celebrating the overturning of Roe v. Wade.
However, Garrity is the only one of the potential contenders that has won a statewide race and went on to win reelection last year with the largest number of votes in Pennsylvania history.
“Garrity is clearly the favorite Republican politician in the state right now,” Nicholas said, despite her low-visibility position. “It’s great that they get a lot of publicity for giving people back their lost or misplaced property or their grandfather’s old war medals from Vietnam or whatever, but that is just not a big part of what state government is around to do, nor do people think it does. So it’s harder for a state treasurer to come in and say what they do is very important to the state managing and running itself.”
While she has not officially announced her candidacy, she has implied it. In a March 2025 interview with the Delaware Valley Journal, Garrity was asked point-blank about a governor bid and replied, “it’s something I’m interested in,” adding that the “grassroots are … solidly behind me.”
“Next November, the Keystone State will send a Republican to the governor’s mansion,” she told a conservative gathering in Harrisburg.
The congressman
Meuser has represented Pennsylvania’s 9th congressional district since 2019. His entry into public service came as Pennsylvania’s Secretary of Revenue from 2011 to 2015, where he overhauled the agency into a taxpayer advocacy organization. In Congress, he serves on the House Financial Services Committee and the Small Business Committee, and is active in several caucuses, including the Problem Solvers Caucus.
Meuser is known for his conservative voting record and aligning with the president, including casting a vote not to certify the 2020 presidential election results and opposing the Affordable Care Act.
Meuser has publicly stated he was “seriously considering” a challenge to Shapiro. He has also made obvious moves to expand his name recognition, especially among Republican voters, including appearances on Fox News and campaign stop-like visits to Philadelphia and elsewhere.
The Trump effect
All three candidates are making apparent efforts to court backing from the president. Such support could cement a Republican primary win, but likely little else.
“The Trump endorsement is something that highlights the real dichotomy of Pennsylvania politics is that things that can really help you in your party primary, regardless of what party you’re in, may not translate to help in the general election,” Nicholas said. “So a Trump endorsement would be really good for a Republican in the primary. It would not be as of much importance or help in the general election. Same if Kamala Harris came in here and said, ‘I didn’t choose [Shapiro] for vice president, but I endorsed him for governor.’”
Aligning with Trump may be an easier task for Meuser, who voted in favor HR1, Trump’s so-called “big beautiful bill,” a budget reconciliation package passed by the House of Representatives in May. That package includes tax breaks along with funding for Trump’s mass deportation plans and the military as well as further restrictions on Medicaid and SNAP eligibility.
Meuser also joined Trump well outside his district for the president’s announcement on the purchase of U.S. Steel. From the stump, Trump told Meuser, “If you run, you’ll have my support totally, and you’ll win,” giving Meuser what appears to be a head start in the race for his favor.
That might not mean much, yet.
“It gives Meuser a bit of a bump right now, but this is very, very early to have a bump,” Chen said. “Until there’s a formal endorsement, it’s not going to really mean a whole lot. It might give some candidates pause, so this is one of those things where it might give a Mastriano or a Garrity pause of, ‘Oh, do I really want to get in?’ They’re going to do their due diligence before they decide they’re going to run. But until there’s a hard and fast endorsement, I don’t think it makes a huge difference yet.”
Trump has also been known to rescind his endorsements or, even more commonly, endorse multiple Republicans in primary races, as he did in last year’s race for the Missouri gubernatorial nomination.
Not to be left out, Garrity took to social media to show support for HR1, despite having no role in federal legislation and concerns over possible loss of access to healthcare for hundreds of thousands if Medicaid is cut and rural hospitals cut services or even completely close.
“It’s time to come together, put America First, and to do the job the American people elected Republicans to do,” she posted on X.
Nicholas says it’s still just too early to know what Trump will do before the race really gets going.
“There’s always the primary before the primary, that’s the stage we’re in now,” Nicholas said. “So who knows? I mean, the next person that 100% decodes Trump will be the first one. So I’m just not sure yet what his strategery is on endorsements, but he knows how important Pennsylvania is to him and to the Republican Party nationally.”