With over $11.5 million raised so far this cycle and $4.3 million already spent this election cycle, Pa.’s 10th-district race for Congress is the most expensive in the state.
Democratic candidate and former local TV news anchor Janelle Stelson is leading the way with $6.3 million raised across her primary and general election campaigns.
“Given the scale, the size of a congressional district, reaching voters takes a considerable amount of resources,” said Chris Borick, political science professor at Lehigh University. “It’s now something that is absolutely essential, especially if your opponent is also well funded.”
Republican incumbent Scott Perry, who has represented the area since has a sizeable war chest of his own. He’s raised almost $5.2 million.
Together, Stelson and Perry have raised money from more people than in the 1st, 7th or 8th congressional districts, which run vertically from Bucks County up to the New York border.
The 10th district covers all of Dauphin County and much of Cumberland and York counties. It was redrawn in 2018 after the Pennsylvania Supreme Court ruled the old maps were unconstitutional political gerrymanders. Since then, Perry has had to win much more competitive races.
This year, Perry may face his most difficult challenge yet. He beat Stelson in 2024 by 1.3% of the vote, a little less than the margin by which President Donald Trump won the state.
This year is expected to be a Democratic wave. In American politics, midterms disfavor the president’s party, according to Robin Kolodny, a political scientist at Temple University.
“The last time that Trump was in office and he had a midterm election in 2018, this state had unprecedented voter turnout, 50%,” Kolodny said. “Normally, it’s close to 40% in this state. If that happens again, then every Republican incumbent is vulnerable.”
Perry is closely politically tied to Trump, who’s approval ratings have been unfavorable among about 60% of Americans since the start of the year. Perry also has his own record, including unfavorable votes like his opposition to the recent bipartisan affordable housing bill Congress passed into law.
Given those factors, Kolodny said she expects Perry’s campaign would need more money than Stelson’s to win this year.
Perry is further behind Stelson than the topline fundraising numbers would make it seem. She has almost $4.5 million left over after the primary. Despite not having a challenger in the primary, Perry has already outspent Stelson and has $2.4 million left to spend.
He’s falling further behind. Between April 30 and June 30, the most recent cycle of federal campaign finance reports, Perry’s campaign raised less than half of Stelson’s $1.5 million.
But money isn’t everything.
Stelson also out-fundraised Perry in 2024 and lost. In races that are as close as PA-10 is expected to be, the quality of the candidates and their campaigns will matter, Borick said.
“You don’t have to necessarily outspend an opponent to win a congressional race, but you’ve got to be in the ballpark in terms of finances,” Borick said.
The money will be directed to two main goals – turnout and swaying voters. Both campaigns are paying people to knock on doors and meet voters in-person and are also paying for advertisements on television and social media. Only about 5% of voters are still making up their minds, Borick said, meaning campaigns will have to be careful about properly targeting where they expend resources.
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