Two of Republicans’ strongest issues in 2024 — the economy and immigration — may be among their weaknesses in this year’s midterms, as the party looks to hold onto three Pennsylvania congressional seats key to maintaining a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives.
According to a Franklin & Marshall College Poll released this week, economic concerns, including unemployment, the cost of housing and real estate, and rising gas and utility prices, topped voters’ list as the most important issue facing Pennsylvania.
And 45% of those surveyed who said the economy was their largest concern said Democrats are best suited to handle it, while only 25% said the same about Republicans. (F&M researchers noted Democrats were more likely to cite the economy as their top concern.)
Those results could signal a problem for Republicans in the midterms. President Donald Trump has hosted several events across the country, including in Pennsylvania, to tout what he called in his State of the Union a “roaring economy” sparked by his leadership.
“You can’t talk people into things that run counter to what they’re experiencing every day,” said Berwood Yost, director of the Center for Opinion Research and the Floyd Institute for Public Policy at F&M. “If people are paying more for basic goods, if they’re feeling like their wages aren’t keeping up with those increases — whatever the top line economic growth numbers might be — those personal assessments are going to outweigh them.”
Pennsylvania voters don’t seem to be feeling a “roaring” economy.
More than one-third (36%) of respondents said they were “worse off” financially than a year ago, while just 20% said they were “better off.” And one quarter said they expect to be “worse off” next year.
Voters’ approval of Trump has also fallen since last year.
Overall, 61% of voters said Trump is doing a “fair “or “poor” job as president, while 39% said he is doing an “excellent” or “good” job.
“Whether it’s his overall job approval ratings or his ratings on specific issues, there’s just been an erosion of support for the president among voters,” Yost said.
The results of F&M’s poll could spell trouble for three Republican Congressional members widely considered among the most vulnerable nationwide this year, as Democrats look to flip the GOP’s slim majority in the U.S. House.
Among them is Republican Scott Perry, who representsthe 10th Congressional District covering Dauphin and parts of Cumberland and York Counties.
For the March 2026 poll, researchers at Franklin & Marshall College surveyed 834 registered Pennsylvania voters — 353 Democrats, 347 Republicans and 134 independents. The poll’s sample error is +/- 4.1%.
IMMIGRATION, ICE SPLIT VOTERS
According to the poll results, Pennsylvania voters are growing increasingly critical of Trump’s immigration policies — another one of the Republican Party’s strong points in the 2024 election.
Since F&M’s October 2025 poll, researchers found that approval ratings for Trump’s handling of immigration slipped from 47% to 42% among Pennsylvania voters.
In the most recent poll, a majority (55%) opposed the administration’s deportation and enforcement actions, while 45% said they approved of them. And while those numbers largely split along party lines, some specific tactics by ICE drew bipartisan scrutiny.
A large majority (76%) disapproved of ICE officers’ use of deadly force against protestors, while 75% disapproved of ICE entering a home without a judicial warrant, as previously reported on by WITF.
Narrower majorities believe ICE officers should not wear face masks to conceal their identity (57%) or use unmarked vehicles to arrest suspects (53%).
These numbers, Yost said, should worry Republicans in contentious districts this year because disapproval of Trump’s immigration policy has “probably generated more enthusiasm among Democratic voters to get out and express their concern about the issue” at the polls in November.
F&M found that 54% of Pennsylvania voters think non-citizens in the U.S. for less than five years — even if they do not have a criminal record — should be targeted for deportation. But for those in the U.S. longer than five years, voters were essentially split on whether they should be targeted.
Voters disapproved of targeting immigrants with asylum or protected status (76%), a visa or a green card (86%); as well as people who have completed or are in the middle of the naturalization process (89%).
BIGGER THAN POLITICS
Though a majority of respondents (65%) said they were dissatisfied with how American democracy is functioning today, Yost noted that Pennsylvanians were “committed to democratic ideals.”
“That’s been consistent — trial by jury, presumption of innocence, freedom of the press,” Yost said. “As we debate policies, we also have to understand that people in the state are committed to democratic principles and practices.”
A large majority (92%) of respondents said they support freedom of speech, 96% believe all citizens deserve equal say in government, and a majority (53%) said there should be no barriers to voting.
Nearly two-thirds (64%) of Pennsylvanians surveyed agreed that Congress has given away too much power and authority to the presidency, and 55% said the same about the judiciary. A majority (69%) also believed Trump has either pushed or overstepped limits placed on the presidency.