A dramatic political transformation is reshaping Pennsylvania’s electoral landscape – and it's happening in counties you might not expect.
Since 2016, 12 counties that had more registered Democrats have flipped to Republican majorities. Only Chester County has flipped the other way. Today, student journalists from the News Lab at Penn State are on the ground speaking to voters in these crucial "seesaw counties" – communities that could determine the outcome of this election.
In Westmoreland County, nearly 40,000 voters have shifted their registration from Democratic to Republican since 2016. That's almost half of President Biden's entire winning margin in Pennsylvania in 2020.
"I just know that the people in my community, the economy, is crushing us," said Kristy Dalnoky, a mother from Washington County. "Just my family alone, we've had to take a second job. My husband has a master's degree from Penn State, and so it doesn't make sense that we're hurting the way that we are. It's like our coffer is just bleeding out."
Another dramatic flip has occurred in Washington County.
In 2016, Democrats held a lead of over 12,000 registered voters. Today, Republicans lead by more than 17,000 – a swing of more than 30,000 voters.
For Dalnoky, like many voters we spoke with today, economic concerns are driving decisions at the ballot box. Even with multiple jobs and advanced degrees, families are feeling squeezed.
In Warren County, second-grade teacher Sara Nickerson sees voting as more than just a civic duty – it's about community responsibility. Here is what she shared with News Lab journalist, Emma Kelly:
"I think it's my civic duty, and I wanted to do what's right," Nickerson said. "And I think it's important that people get out and vote, you know, to be good role models, also for future generations."
The concerns we heard today we’re hearing today aren’t just economic. In Bucks County, Democratic Committee member Joe Frederick expressed worry about fundamental democratic principles. Here is what he shared with News Lab journalist Louise Bennett:
"The loss of women's rights is probably one of the biggest (issues)," Frederick said, "because I have five sisters and they're adamant that, 'We're not going to put up with this.' They're not pawns, and they can't be told what to do."
These seesaw counties tell a larger story about Pennsylvania's changing political landscape. While Philadelphia County has lost over 23,000 registered voters since 2020, we're seeing significant shifts in party registration across the state. The Democratic voter registration advantage statewide has shrunk from over 916,000 in 2016 to just 281,000 today.
As results come in tonight, these thirteen counties could prove decisive. In communities that have swung between parties by margins in the tens of thousands, every vote will matter.
