While the race for governor and Pennsylvania’s congressional contests are expected to dominate campaign spending and television advertising this fall, some of the most consequential political battles in the commonwealth may be taking place away from the spotlight in the fight for control of the state legislature in Harrisburg.
A handful of legislative districts will determine which party controls the Pennsylvania House of Representatives and whether Republicans maintain their grip on the state Senate. The outcome will shape everything from the state budget and mass transit funding to energy policy, voting laws, public education and Gov. Josh Shapiro’s ability to implement his legislative agenda for the next two years.
Shapiro, discussed as a potential 2028 presidential contender, often touts his ability to govern in a state with “divided” government, as recently as this month when he signed a bipartisan state budget.
“Despite working with one of the only divided legislatures in the country — where we have some really profound differences — we stayed at the table and brought Democrats and Republicans together to get stuff done, again,” Shapiro said at the signing. “We managed to find compromise — without compromising our core values.”
‘A whole new world’
Republicans have maintained a majority in the state Senate since taking control in 1978, with a brief interruption in 1993 after Sen. Frank Pecora switched from the Republican Party to the Democratic Party, shifting the Senate balance to a 25-25 tie and giving Democratic Lt. Gov. Mark Singel the tie-breaking vote. Republicans have also controlled the state House of Representatives, with Democrats only gaining their current slim majority in 2022.
Therefore, Democrats haven’t achieved the holy “trifecta” of control in Harrisburg for nearly 50 years, though Republicans have several times over the years, making the stakes “a lot higher this year,” said John Kennedy, professor of political science at West Chester University.
“There’s certainly a bit of pent-up frustration and pent-up legislative activity that’s been boiling for decades,” he said. “We’ve had essentially bipartisan split government since Gov. Wolfe was elected in 2014. The governor is in a strong position today for reelection to have that political trifecta.”
Berwood Yost, a political science professor and director of the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College, said that has long had a “moderating” effect on agendas put forth by Democratic governors, such as Shapiro.
“It would be a whole new world from a policy standpoint for Democrats to control all those levers of power because there are things that are never discussed that now might be,” he said. “I think about how many people favor, say, an increased minimum wage. That’s been dead in the Senate.”
Shapiro appears to agree. Just a week after his budget address, he expressed a sharp desire for his party to take control of Harrisburg, giving him broad power to implement his vision for the commonwealth with less resistance than he has now. Shapiro said that if Democrats take back the legislature in January, they would raise the minimum wage within “the first 30 days.”
“We will codify abortion rights into law in the commonwealth of Pennsylvania,” he said at a campaign rally. “We’re going to build more affordable housing and take on those utility companies that keep jacking up our rates here in Pennsylvania.”
Why few races matter
Republicans hold a narrow majority in the state Senate with 27 seats compared to 23 for Democrats. That means if Democrats can flip three seats, they will take the majority. On the other side of the state capitol building and partisan divide, Democrats hold an even slimmer majority in the state House of Representatives, which they won in 2023 and now have 102 seats to Republicans’ 100.
Pennsylvania’s legislative map has become increasingly polarized over the past decade, leaving relatively few genuinely competitive districts. Kennedy said that’s because Pennsylvania voters “have sorted themselves” into politically aligned zones over the “last 20 years or so.”
Urban areas such as Philadelphia have become exclusively Democratic strongholds while Republicans have “totally taken control of rural, large swaths of the real geography of the state where Democrats at one time actually were competitive. That has left the spaces between as the ultimate arbiters of power in Harrisburg.
“The real battle is over the suburbs and how they’ve shifted,” Kennedy said. “And that’s really where the Democrats have carved out their majority over the last few years in the legislature.”
Ultimately, control of both chambers will likely hinge on fewer than two dozen races across the state, including several in suburban Philadelphia and southeastern Pennsylvania.
Many of the seats in question share a defining characteristic: Voters regularly split their tickets. Some Republican-held districts supported Democratic statewide candidates in recent elections. Others continue electing Democratic legislators even after voting comfortably for Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election.
Senate Republicans play defense in key Pa. districts
While Republicans begin the election cycle with a four-seat advantage in the Senate, demographic trends may have created opportunities for Democrats in several districts, particularly in suburban Philadelphia. In Bucks County, for example, Democrats are targeting Sen. Frank Farry in the 6th House District. Farry first won his Senate seat by a comfortable 10,000 votes in 2022, and Republicans still command a voter registration advantage, but Democrats have stemmed that trend during Trump’s first term.
Kennedy said that, even with a voter registration advantage, Republicans are facing a steep challenge as Democrats are simply more motivated to show up to the polls as Trump’s approval rating drops.
“A lot can change in a few months, but certainly when you look at that enthusiasm gap, it is certainly real today,” he said. “And for Republicans in competitive races, whether congressional or legislative races, that’s a real warning sign.”
Another area seat — the 24th District, which includes parts of Berks and Montgomery counties — may be even more vulnerable. The incumbent, Sen. Tracy Pennycuick, won her seat by only a 4-percentage-point margin in 2022, one of the lowest Republican Senate seats on the ballot this year. She now faces Democratic challenger Christopher David Thomas, a teacher and community organizer.
In another Bucks County district, the 16th, Republican Sen. Jarrett Coleman is seeking a second term against Lehigh County Controller Mark Pinsley in a rematch of their 2022 contest. Coleman won that contest by eight percentage points, outside of the five points that would make it a top-tier potential to flip, but it could come into play depending on just how wide the enthusiasm gap proves to be.
Republicans fight back
Still, Yost believes the Senate remains a challenge for Democrats, and Republicans have a chance for at least one of their own pickups.
“It seems like the House is more open to supporting maybe picking up a few Democrats there. The Senate is a heavier lift,” he said. “The way voters are distributed by party that I think makes that tougher. So I think the Senate is a bit more likely to weather these external trends.”
In Lancaster County’s 36th Senate District, Democrat James Malone won a special election last year in a district Donald Trump carried comfortably, likely making it the best chance Republicans have at flipping a seat themselves. Malone currently faces Tom Jones, who served as chairman of the East Donegal Township board of supervisors and a police commissioner for the Susquehanna Regional Police Department.
Yost also said that the Republican choice for their gubernatorial nominee — Stacy Garrity — will also mitigate potential losses.
“Their hope is that she’s able to make this race with Gov. Shapiro much more competitive and, by doing that, the downballot effects will be lessened,” he said.
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