HARRISBURG — Pennsylvania has largely avoided the mid-decade redistricting fight unfolding in red and blue states nationwide, despite hosting key races in the battle over the U.S. House majority next year.
President Donald Trump has pressured Republicans in party bastions like Texas and Indiana to redraw their Congressional maps early ahead of next year’s midterm to give the GOP an advantage while defending its slim majority in the U.S. House.
Democrats in blue states like California are considering their own mid-decade redistricting to offset any additional seats Republicans would pick up in Congress from Texas.
Pennsylvania, a politically purple state, has avoided the redistricting debate likely because its General Assembly is divided, with neither political party dominating the legislative agenda — evident in the ongoing, monthlong state budget delay.
States where one party dominates have more power to embrace or fight the tinkering proposed by the White House. In Texas, for example, Republicans control the state’s House of Representatives, Senate and governor’s seat. And in California, Democrats own the legislative majorities and the governor’s mansion.
Meanwhile, Pennsylvania’s government is split between a Republican Senate and a narrowly Democratic House. It also has a Democratic governor in Josh Shapiro.
Under current law, the Pennsylvania Legislature proposes a census-based map for approval from its governor every 10 years (the next is due in 2031). The Supreme Court can reject the map and adopt another version if any registered voter challenges the Legislature’s proposal in court, as the body did during Pennsylvania’s last redistricting in 2021.
Shapiro said last week in an unrelated news conference that his office was not pursuing redistricting this year, adding, “I’m focused on the work we are doing here in our commonwealth.”
Earlier in the week, Shapiro, a potential 2028 presidential candidate, said it was “shameful” that Texas Gov. Abbott and Trump are trying to preserve the GOP House majority by “bending the rules” instead of “standing up on their merits of the argument based on legislation they passed or positions they’ve taken.”
Even if redistricting was on the table in Pennsylvania, Carol Kuniholm, chair of the anti-gerrymandering organization Fair Districts PA, said the state Supreme Court has a history of defending voters from overly partisan districts. In 2018, the sitting judges declared that Pennsylvania’s map created in 2011 violated the state Constitution.
“For right now, Pennsylvania is safe from this extreme gerrymandering war that is spreading across the country to red and blue states,” Kuniholm said.
Trump last week ordered a mid-decade census to be taken, overstepping a power granted to Congress under Article 1 of the U.S. Constitution. In an Aug. 7 social media post, Trump wrote, “People who are in our Country illegally WILL NOT BE COUNTED IN THE CENSUS."
But the 14th Amendment says that the number of House members apportioned to each state is determined by “counting the whole number of persons in each State, excluding Indians not taxed."
Trump did not specify when he would want a new census to be taken.
When Pennsylvania last redrew its Congressional map in 2021, its number of House districts dropped from 18 to 17 due to low population growth in the commonwealth. After a drawn-out court battle and more than a dozen rejected maps, the Supreme Court approved a map proposed by a group of voters backed by a Democratically aligned organization.
Resisting partisan lines
The partisan debate over redistricting has attracted renewed attention nationwide to the fight against gerrymandering.
Kuniholm said one of the best ways a state can avoid partisan mapmaking is to host an independent commission charged with drawing a fair congressional district map.
“Right now, confidence in democracy is kind of at a pretty dangerous low, and confidence in both parties is at a dangerous low,” Kuniholm said. “So my personal feeling is that we are better off saying, ‘Let’s fix the systems.’”
A 2019 Franklin & Marshall College poll — sponsored by Fair Districts PA — found that 67% of Pennsylvania voters support the creation of an independent commission to draw district lines. Just 15% said legislators should continue to do so, while 9% said both should be involved. A combined 10% either said neither party should have a say, or they did not have a definite opinion.
There are two matching proposals in the General Assembly, backed by Fair Districts PA, looking to create an independent commission.
The bipartisan-backed amendments to the state Constitution would instead establish an 11-person commission consisting of six randomly selected members: two lawmakers from each major political party, and two unaffiliated voters. Those members would then choose the five remaining lawmakers and unaffiliated voters. Approving a map would require bipartisan agreement.
Both bills have stalled in each chamber’s respective state government committees since the spring, but sponsoring Rep. Steve Samuelson, D-Northampton County, said he hopes the recent headlines renew attention on his House proposal.
Samuelson’s amendment would need to be approved by the Legislature in back-to-back two-year legislative sessions before it would reach a statewide voter referendum.
“Districts should be fair, they should be compact. They should be contiguous. They should respect communities of interest,” Samuelson said. “They should not be drawn for partisan advantage.”